Manchester City returns to the Premier League after a trip to Abu Dhabi, hosting Burnley, Everton, and Chelsea while visiting Brentford and Bournemouth before the end of February. Liverpool must go to Arsenal during that period, and while their fixtures are largely manageable, they may be without talisman Mohamed Salah for more than a month if Egypt advances to the African Nations Cup final. Wataru Endo is also away with Japan for up to a month during the Asian Cup.

City, by contrast, should have a full squad to choose from, with Haaland nearing his recovery from a foot ιnjᴜry and Stones also on tгack to return by February. It feels like the stars are aligning once more for Guardiola’s side. If the return of De Bruyne, Doku, and Haaland isn’t enough to make City’s title opponents nеrvous, their gloomy record in the second half of seasons should be.

In the five seasons City has won the title under Guardiola, they have been top just twice on New Year’s Eve. They trailed Arsenal by five points at the end of 2022 and ended up winning the title last season with three games to spare, while they were seven points off the pace in both 2018-19 and 2020-21, but made up the difference in the New Year.

Amazing winning streaks, the majority of which occurred in the second half of the respective campaigns, were critical to those turnarounds. City reacted to a setback against Newcastle in January 2019 by winning 14 consecutive games and edging off Liverpool for the title. Between December and March of 2020-21, they went on an astounding 15-game winning streak. Last season, they won 12 consecutive games, with draws at Nottingham Forest in February and Brighton in May.

Guardiola and his coaching staff plan for City to reach peak fitness in the second half of the season, and it is hard to argue with their track record. There is always the danger that they have too much ground to make up, as in the 2016-17 and 2019-20 seasons, but five league titles and seven other major trophies suggest they know what they are doing.